Forecasting the power generation requirement for Duke Energy Corporation

Project Details




Adhyan Anand, Uday Kumar Susarapu, Raveesh Vyas, Mugdha Dhavalikar, Shyam Chandra Gudla, Reuben John





This document outlines the procedure for forecasting the future power generation requirements from
various fuel sources. Our client is Duke Corporation, who has a current market share of 4.01% in U.S. It
uses three major sources of power generation-coal, nuclear and natural gas. Duke Corporation wants to
understand the future power generation requirements. Our business objective is to estimate capacity
requirements for Duke Corporation in the next year, by forecasting demand of power generation by
different fuel sources. We will forecast demand for the three power sources (Coal, Nuclear, Natural
Gas) currently used by the company and also three power sources (Solar, Hydroelectric & Petroleum)
which are not used by the company. They will use this information to devise capacity expansion or
reduction plans. Also, they can use the forecast of Solar, Hydroelectric and Petroleum power generation
to see where the market is moving and make their investments accordingly.
The forecasting objective is to forecast the energy generation requirements from different fuel sources
for next 12 or 24 months depending on the source of fuel. To conduct our analysis, we have used the
power generation statistics for the period Jan’2001- Oct’2016. The data is the monthly power
generation (Megawatt hours) in U.S.(state-wise) from 6 different fuel sources. The objective of the
analysis is to obtain the forecast for national power generation. Hence we have summarized the state
level data into national level data and have used it to forecast 6-time series – one for each energy

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